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As reverse player false conclusion (EN: inverse gambler's fallaxy) is designated the simple player false conclusion similar of errors when measuring probabilities: A pair of cubes is thrown and shows double six. That is a rather improbable result, therefore the cubes must have been already rather often thrown before. More generally expressed, the reverse player false conclusion states that an improbable event shows that many further events exist.

Just like with the simple player false conclusion the error in a sentence is to be gotten straight: Cubes do not have memory. Each throw is stochastically independent of every other throw.

The error is based on the correct knowledge that also improbable events occur sometime in a large number of attempts. The cube example regards however especially no large number of attempts, but a certain throw, whose result chances are not affected by other throws.

An example makes it clear: A random number generator produces numbers between 1 and 100. The result of a round is "“17"”. 17 is a rather improbable result (chance 1:99). Can one conclude from the fact that the random number generator must have already for a very long time run, if it produces so improbable Naturally not. The result does not contain an information about how many numbers already came.
A parallel formulation could become more difficult: The random number generator is such built into a money play automat that the player wins 17"” 50 euro with each "“. Assumed, you play only once and win. Entitled it to the consideration the "“Wow! I won! 1:99! Reliably the machine runs already quite a while, otherwise I could have won never immediately!

Obviously one is subject to the false conclusion rather, if an event under others is emphasized equal probable events. Unconsciously we would like to later explain "“special"” events, by changing the background acceptance over the coincidence experiment. The changed hypothesis is then apparently confirmed by the "“unusual"” result. Just as well you could also believe, a philanthropic programmer would have programmed the automat in such a way that he spends the 17, as soon as you step to the equipment.

Multiversum

Sometimes in philosophy the anthropische principle is interpreted as reference to the fact that there must be many parallel university verses, so that becomes possible into at least intelligent life (S.A. Multiversum). Critics such as Hacking and White (Lit.) see therein an example of the reverse player false conclusion.

Literature

  • Hacking, I. (1987): "“The inverse Gambler's Fallacy: The argument from Design. The Anthropic Principle Applied ton of Wheeler of university verse."” Mind 96:331 - 340.
  • White, R. (2000): "“Fine Tuning and multiple one of university verse."” Nous 34:260 - 276

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